AFC East: Jets Rounding Into Form

Football Betting Lines

11/18/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No member of the New York Jets ever said it, but Thursday night's contest at the New England Patriots was a veritable referendum on the team's offseason moves.

If a Jets team that had brought in Brett Favre to lead the passing game, found him a blossoming over-the-middle tight end talent in Dustin Keller, signed two established offensive line talents in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, traded for nose tackle Kris Jenkins to control the opposing run and a legitimate outside pass rusher in Calvin Pace still couldn't beat the now-depleted New England Patriots and seize first place in the AFC East, then lots of NFL observers would have taken to calling those moves pointless.

That would have been overstating things, of course, just as calling the Jets the new kings of the AFC East hill is an exaggeration, even in the wake of their 34-31 overtime triumph at New England.

The Jets still would have been part of the playoff picture even if the Patriots had completed their comeback from a 24-6 deficit by beating Gang Green, just as Eric Mangini's squad still has a great deal of work to do to fend off New England (6-4) and Miami (6-4) over the final six weeks of the season.

But, let there be no question that the Jets' win over the hated Patriots was a psychological mountain successfully scaled, and at least for the moment, no one will be saying New York shopped unwisely during the late winter and early spring of 2008.

Favre has taken some heat this season for his mistakes and an occasional lack of big plays, but neither problem was on display against the Patriots.

No. 4 completed 26-of-33 passes for 258 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in the loss, coolly leading the Jets down the field in the overtime session to get Jay Feely in position for the game-winning 34-yard field goal.

Keller, the rookie out of Purdue who looks to be the capable pass-catching tight end the team has long lacked, was Favre's favorite target with eight grabs for 87 yards on the night.

Faneca and Woody were part of a group that allowed the Jets to churn out 140 ground yards, including 104 on 30 carries with a touchdown for Thomas Jones.

Defensively, the Pro Bowl-worthy Jenkins had three tackles, a sack, and helped limit New England's running backs to 63 yards on 17 carries (3.7 per rush), and Pace ranked second on the team with seven tackles on the night.

Yes, the secondary still has some work to do after allowing Matt Cassel to throw for a career-high 400 yards, and the club must learn to keep its foot on the gas when holding a big lead, but let's remember that this team was 2-8 at this point last year, and there are strides still to be made.

Thursday's win was more evidence that the strides have been gallops, as opposed to baby steps.

"What has pleased me and what I'm continuing to look for is complementary football, and all three phases being able to contribute to the success that week," said Mangini on Monday. "(In) each phase understanding what they have to get done in the game in order to win the game and how they have to play it in order to help the other phases be successful - complete football, not having drop-offs late in the game, being able to deal with whatever adversity comes throughout the course of the game. Sometimes you're going to be up, sometimes you're going to be behind, sometimes it's going to be tied. There's going to be a lot of different challenges that you face, you see those, you deal with them, and you move on. I've been pleased with that, too."

BILLS: What a difference a month makes.

It was on October 19th that the Buffalo Bills moved to 5-1 and into control of the AFC East with an impressive 23-14 home victory over the San Diego Chargers.

Reporters were digging out those notes about 5-1 teams and their usual fate as playoff entries, quarterback Trent Edwards looked like he would need to make reservations for that Pro Bowl trip to Hawaii, and talk was rife of head coach Dick Jauron's imminent signing of a contract extension.

One month later, the Bills are just another middling 5-5 team, Edwards isn't even a cinch to keep his job until the end of the year, and, after Monday night's galling 29-27 home loss to the Cleveland Browns, Jauron does not rate high on the list of Bills fans' favorite luminaries.

Jauron didn't throw those three first-quarter interceptions, that was Edwards (16-of-26, 148 yards, 1 TD), but his conservative approach in the final seconds, with the Bills trying to get into position for a game-winning field goal try, has led to some second-guessing.

With the ball at the Browns 34-yard-line, the Bills opted for three straight inside running plays instead of throwing the ball to get kicker Rian Lindell a few yards closer on a crisp night at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The usually automatic Lindell missed his 47-yard field goal try wide right to send Buffalo to a fourth straight loss, the Bills' first four-game losing skid since it lost five in a row in 2005.

"I just missed my line," said Lindell of the miss. "I hit a good ball. I had a good approach. It just kept going straight right. I've got to make that. It's ridiculous."

The defeat dropped Buffalo alone into last place in the AFC East, including 0-4 in the division.

DOLPHINS: The Miami Dolphins' last two wins, narrow affairs over the struggling Seattle Seahawks (21-19) and Oakland Raiders (17-15), will not be judged as having historical importance as time marches on.

The victories have, however, moved the surprising Fins closer to a couple of notable historical benchmarks.

If they don't win another game this year, Miami will have already matched its best-ever turnaround, tying its jump from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in its first year under Nick Saban in 2005. That one seems like a cinch, and the best single-season turnaround in NFL history is also within the sights of Tony Sparano's club.

The 1999 Indianapolis Colts, who finished 13-3 one season after going 3-13, are still the most abrupt worst-to-first story in NFL annals. The Dolphins would need to win out to surpass that mark, and would need to finish 11-5 to match it.

A record like that would be almost certain to get the Dolphins into the postseason for the first time since 2001, and will also keep Miami within range of an AFC East title that absolutely no one predicted the Dolphins would be in the ballpark of prior to the start of the season.

The team can take another major step toward that goal this week, when they try to complete their first home-and-home sweep of the New England Patriots since the 2000 season. The Fins were surprise 38-13 winners at the Patriots in Week 3.

"Every time you win," said defensive end Vonnie Holliday, "you give yourself an opportunity to be on a bigger stage and have a bigger opportunity.

"That's where we are, and while no believed we could be here, we did."

PATRIOTS: As 2008 training camp neared its end, there was speculation that Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel might not even make the 53-man roster.

Cassel had not played particularly well in the preseason, New England had used a third-round Draft choice on San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell in April, and the other QB seen as being on the bubble, holdover Matt Gutierrez, had outplayed Cassel in the summer. There was also a chance Bill Belichick would scour the waiver wire to find a backup to Tom Brady.

But Cassel survived, and now all of that chatter seems like it occurred eons ago. Brady's injury forced the four-year USC backup into his first starting role since high school, and Cassel has responded by keeping the Patriots in the thick of the playoff race.

His tour de force came this past Thursday, when he completed 31-of-50 passes for 400 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, also rushing for 62 yards in the 34-31 overtime near-miss against the Jets.

Cassel was unable to complete the comeback with a win, but he did rally New England back from a deficit of 24-6, and his 16-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss with a second to play in regulation rivaled any of the clutch throws made by Brady during his certain-Hall of Fame career.

Now in the final year of his contract, Cassel's role as the capable understudy could yield him a large monetary result as some team's leading man next season.

"It's definitely a confidence booster," said New England wideout Jabar Gaffney of Cassel's performance on Thursday. "We were down and he brought us all the way back and we had a chance.

"Matt played a hell of a game tonight."

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.