Big Ten brawl pits Illinois against No. 9 Purdue

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

12/30/2008 - West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Ten slate gets underway tonight for the ninth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers and the Illinois Fighting Illini at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Illinois has reason to be extremely confident, as the squad is riding a six- game win streak and owns a tremendous 12-1 record. The Illini are fresh off a 62-53 victory over Eastern Michigan on Sunday and beat then nationally-ranked Missouri in the previous outing. The lone loss came by just two points to a Clemson squad that enters Tuesday's action undefeated.

As for Purdue, it has also won its last six outings, and coach Matt Painter's team is 11-2 overall. On Sunday, the club cruised to victory over Valparaiso by a 59-45 final and has also beaten the likes of Boston College and Davidson this season. The only two losses suffered by PU came against powerhouse opponents Duke and Oklahoma.

Purdue holds a narrow 88-82 series lead over Illinois, and the Boilermakers won two of the three meetings a year ago.

Strong defense has clearly been the main ingredient in Illinois' 12-1 start. The Illini are holding foes to just 55.8 ppg on 39.6 percent shooting from the floor, including 26.4 percent from three-point range. Trent Meacham and Demetri McCamey are both averaging 12.2 ppg for Illinois, which is getting 12.1 ppg and 7.8 rpg from Mike Davis. As for Mike Tisdale, he rounds out a foursome of double-digit scorers with 11.6 ppg. In the nine-point win over Eastern Michigan on Sunday, Tisdale racked up 25 points on 10-of-18 shooting from his center position. Meacham had 16 points, and Chester Frazier pulled down 11 boards. The Illini earned a 13-7 edge in points from the foul line and forced 21 turnovers -- two obvious keys to the victory.

As good as Illinois has been defensively this season, it can be argued that Purdue has been even better. The Boilermakers are only allowing 56.0 ppg on 35.1 percent shooting by the opposition. Offensively, they are posting 74.2 ppg, and Robbie Hummel shares the team scoring lead with E'Twaun Moore, as both players are netting 14.4 ppg. Hummel is pulling down 7.8 rpg, and Moore is a versatile talent as well. The third and final double-digit scorer on the roster is JaJuan Johnson with his 12.3 ppg. In the 14-point decision over Valparaiso on Sunday, Moore scored a team-high 14 points. Johnson added 10, and while Hummel was limited to nine points, he did pull down 11 rebounds. The Boilermakers only committed nine turnovers and help the Crusaders to 33.3 percent field goal efficiency. For those reasons, Purdue was able to overcome a sub par 7-of-15 showing from the charity stripe and 36.4 percent shooting from the floor.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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