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09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta's offense has been mostly shut down during its current stretch of four losses in five games. That is exactly what starter Tim Hudson has done to Pittsburgh over the last few years, though.
Hudson looks to extend a run of 22 consecutive innings of not allowing an earned run versus the Pirates, who continue a three-game set with the struggling Braves tonight at PNC Park.
Atlanta has been held to a pair of runs or less in each of its last four losses and is just 8-10 since Aug. 19. Those struggles have allowed Philadelphia to close within a half-game of the first-place Braves in the National League East.
The club should be glad to have Hudson, who hasn't allowed an earned run versus the Pirates since Aug. 23, 2006. He has won each of last three starts against them, including a May 21 outing in which he threw eight shutout innings and worked around three hits and four walks to improve to 5-3 with a 2.45 earned run average lifetime versus Pittsburgh.
The 35-year-old is coming off his first loss since July 17, as he had a six- decision win streak end on Thursday versus the Mets after allowing four runs -- three earned -- over seven innings. He dipped to 15-6 on the season, and his 2.30 ERA is tied for second-best in the NL.
The right-handed Hudson is also 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 road starts and hasn't lost as the guest pitcher since June 23.
Atlanta will try to supply its hurler with more offense than it managed last night, when David Ross plated the Braves' only run with a sacrifice fly. Derrek Lee added two hits and scored that run on his 35th birthday, while starting pitcher Tommy Hanson allowed three runs -- two earned -- in six innings to take the loss.
"We had some hits and we had some runners," said Atlanta manager Bobby Cox after his club left 10 men on base and went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. "We just didn't get the big hit to get back in the game. We thought we were going to get it just about every inning, but it never happened."
Neil Walker paced the Pirates with a two-run homer, his fifth long ball on a 13-game hitting streak in which he is hitting .404 (23-for-57) with 16 RBI. Jose Tabata added an RBI and scored a run for the Pirates, who had lost seven of nine overall before the game and picked up just their second victory in seven meetings with the Braves this year.
Atlanta has still own eight of the last 12 overall in the series.
Stepping in for an injured Jeff Karstens (shoulder), Brian Burres gave up one run over six innings for Pittsburgh, working around five hits without a walk.
"I can't say enough of the job he did out there today," said Pirates manager John Russell about Burres after the game. "He kept us in the game. We knew coming in facing the three pitchers we're going to face that it's going to be tough and he did a great job for us."
James McDonald tries to put the brakes on a three-start slide this evening for Pittsburgh, a skid in which he has pitched to a 7.71 ERA.
The right-hander was charged with three runs over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday, falling to 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA in six starts since being acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
McDonald, 25, will be making his first career start versus the Braves but has faced them twice in relief, striking out five over four scoreless innings.
<< Hard-charging Phils continue key series with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have been inconsistent on offense
all year, and it was never more evident than during Monday's doubleheader
versus the Florida Marlins. That still didn't stop the club from pulling
within a half-game
<< Skidding Rangers resume set at Toronto
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers try to avoid a fifth straight loss this
evening when they continue their four-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays
at Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays drew first blood in this series on Monday, as Verno
<< Rays try again to snap slide against Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays try to avoid their fourth straight loss
this evening when they continue a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox
at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox kept their fleeting postseason hopes alive in the ope
<< White Sox send Garcia to mound in Detroit
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freddy Garcia tries to win his ninth straight decision as
an opposing pitcher at Comerica Park this evening when the Chicago White Sox
and Detroit Tigers continue their four-game series.
In his last nine starts as a vi
Rockies hope to stay hot versus Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies have put together a couple of strong
Septembers over the past few years. They've been even more successful in
recent meetings with the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field.
Colorado shoots for an eighth cons
Week One Highlights >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Could the 2010 college football season
gotten off to a better start? It began with some of the nation's top teams
flexing their muscles. There were shootouts, defensive struggles and thrilling
overtime affair
Lohse hoping to pitch Cardinals past Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be loaded at the
top of their pitching rotation, the back end could use some work.
Kyle Lohse gets a chance to claim his rotation spot this evening, when St.
Louis tries to gain mor
Rookies to go head-to-head in Mets-Nationals clash >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Washington Nationals already looking ahead to next
year -- and maybe even 2012 given Stephen Strasburg's need for Tommy John
surgery -- a couple of young players are looking to show the team they can
contribute.
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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